Tier 3 · À-la-carte extension
Hidden Markov Regime-Switching Cluster Trajectories
Identify when an industry cluster has switched into a new regime — accelerating, decelerating, or about to switch. Tells the City which clusters are at inflection.
Marine & Life Sciences — Accelerating · employment trajectory with inferred regime
Current regime: growth · Switch probability (12mo): 6%
Posterior regime probability (current state)
Priority: Urgent
Switch prob 6%Regime-switch detected in 2021; cluster is in confirmed high-growth state.
HMM analysis identifies a sharp regime change in 2021 from steady-growth to accelerated-growth, coinciding with USF St. Pete Innovation District momentum and SRI International expansion. Current regime probability is 0.91 in growth state. Cluster will likely sustain this trajectory through at least 2027 absent shock.
Strategic action
Lock in growth-state momentum. Recommend Marine & Life Sciences as a Tier 1 target cluster. Pair with Climate Resilience expansion to reinforce trajectory.
Illustrative dummy data
All figures shown are illustrative and chosen to demonstrate three meaningfully different findings. Final analysis at engagement award is derived from authoritative sources (BLS, ACS, Florida DEO, IMPLAN, CoStar) with full methodology documentation.
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