Economic & Market Assessment — RFP § 4.4.A
The analytical foundation for target-industry identification.
Every cluster recommendation in our final deliverable will trace back to a specific signal in this layer. Each section below pairs the analytical view with a right-rail explanation of why we run this analysis and how it shapes the target-industry identification — not generic economic-development boilerplate, but the evidentiary basis behind every cluster we will refine, retire, or recommend.
§ 4.4.A.1
Multi-level context
§ 4.4.A.1
Labor & employment
§ 4.4.A.2
Workforce & education
§ 4.4.A.3
Emerging sectors
§ 4.4.A.4
Location quotient
Pre-engagement baseline · scope to deepen post-award
The charts and metrics on this page are HSG’s pre-engagement analytical baseline, derived from public BLS QCEW, ACS PUMS, and Census data. The full Phase 2 Economic Snapshot delivered post-award incorporates Florida DEO Labor Market Statistics proprietary data, a structured employer survey, primary stakeholder interview synthesis, and Tier 2 synthetic-control causal inference. The work shown here is where we started; not what the City is paying for.
City Population
263.6K
+6.5% since 2014 · 5th-largest in FL
Median HHI
$67.5K
+22% since 2019 · ~14% below US median
Bachelor's Degree+
36.4%
vs 33.0% FL · talent attainment outlier in MSA
Labor Force
144.3K
3.4% unemployment · 7.2% underemployed
01
The comparison frame
St. Petersburg in five reference geographies.
A target industry's strength only makes sense relative to the right comparison geography. We assess the city against Pinellas County, the Tampa-St. Pete-Clearwater MSA, Florida, and the U.S. — because different cluster candidates demand different reference frames.
Multi-level economic context
City → County → MSA → FL → US
| Metric | St. Pete | County | MSA | Florida | U.S. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 263.6K | 959.1K | 3.22M | 22.6M | 335.7M |
| 10-yr population growth | +6.5% | +3.7% | +12.3% | +15.4% | +5.2% |
| Median household income | $67.5K | $66.0K | $67.8K | $67.9K | $78.5K |
| Bachelor's degree or higher | 36.4% | 32.5% | 32.0% | 33.0% | 35.0% |
| Unemployment rate | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.1% |
| Poverty rate | 12.8% | 11.4% | 12.5% | 12.7% | 11.5% |
Population · interpretation
St. Pete is the 5th-largest city in Florida and core of the 18th-largest U.S. MSA — large enough to anchor a real cluster strategy, small enough to execute one.
10-yr population growth · interpretation
City growth outpaces the county and the nation but lags the MSA — St. Pete is choosing density over sprawl, a structural fact that changes which clusters fit.
Median household income · interpretation
City HHI is at MSA parity but ~14% below national. Industry targets that depend on local discretionary income face a slightly thinner ceiling than the national average.
Bachelor's degree or higher · interpretation
City is the clear talent-attainment outlier in the MSA — supports knowledge-intensive cluster targets (FinTech, AI/Data, life sciences) that can't be supported by Pinellas-County or MSA-level talent profile alone.
02
The demand floor and labor-pool ceiling
The Sunshine City keeps growing — quietly.
St. Petersburg added ~16,300 residents in the 2014-2024 window — a 6.5% gain, well above coastal-FL median growth despite hard land-use constraints. Pinellas County tracks similar growth, signaling regional, not city-only, demand.
Population trend · 2014 – 2024
+16,300 residents over a decade.
03
The structural fingerprint
The job base is rebalancing — fast.
Health Care leads in absolute job count; Information & Tech and Professional Services lead in growth velocity. Manufacturing continues a decade-long decline that the 2014 plan did not anticipate at this scale. Three industries clear the 15% 5-year-growth threshold — primary candidates for refined target-cluster status.
Jobs by industry · 5-year growth color-coded
Information & Tech: +22.4% (5yr) — signal for AI / Data cluster acceleration
Professional Services: +19.7% — feeds FinTech and decision-sciences pivot
Health Care: 24,100 jobs — the unrecognized #1 cluster, missing from the 2014 plan
Manufacturing: −6.3% — refresh strategy with clean-tech specialization
04
The talent profile
A stronger talent base than its peers — except where it matters most for innovation.
Educational attainment, demographic depth, and underemployment together shape which clusters can scale and which require fresh capability building. The MSA-scale labor draw materially expands the city's effective talent radius.
36.4%
Bachelor's degree or higher
Above FL median (33.0%), within 1pp of the U.S. average. Concentrated downtown and adjacent to the EDC of Tampa Bay.
56.7
Diversity index (ACS-derived)
Top quartile among Florida cities — a competitive advantage for inclusive cluster design.
$67.5K
Median household income
At MSA parity; below national. Income mobility constrained in South St. Pete CRA — equity-dialogue priority.
3.2M
MSA labor pool
Tampa-St. Pete-Clearwater MSA gives St. Pete a 1.71M-strong labor force draw across the bay.
05
The talent pipeline
Five educational anchors. Five binding constraints — or five capacity engines.
Cluster strategies that ignore educational capacity fail in years 3-5. Each candidate target cluster needs a named educational anchor and an explicit capacity flag — the institution(s) that produce its talent, the programs that align, and the binding constraint when those programs hit ceiling.
Research University
USF St. Petersburg
~4,800 students (consolidated USF system; ~50,000 system-wide)
Programs of note
- ▪USF College of Marine Science (Bayboro campus, R1 designation)
- ▪Muma College of Business — FinTech, Decision Sciences, Cybersecurity concentrations
- ▪Kate Tiedemann School of Business + Banking
- ▪USF Health (Tampa, with St. Pete clinical anchors)
Cluster alignment
Binding constraint for
Marine, Life & Climate Sciences · AI, Data & Decision Sciences
Liberal Arts College
Eckerd College
~1,800 students (private liberal-arts; nationally recognized for marine science)
Programs of note
- ▪Marine Science (#1-ranked undergraduate program by some ranking systems)
- ▪Environmental Studies
- ▪Behavioral Sciences
- ▪Creative Arts
Cluster alignment
Binding constraint for
Marine, Life & Climate Sciences
Community College
St. Petersburg College (SPC)
~28,000 students (largest workforce-pipeline institution in Pinellas)
Programs of note
- ▪Health Sciences (nursing, allied health) — feeds Health Innovation cluster
- ▪Veterinary Technology, Marine Engineering Technology
- ▪Information Technology + Cybersecurity
- ▪Business — banking, accounting, real estate
- ▪Public Safety / Fire Science (emergency response)
Cluster alignment
Binding constraint for
Health Innovation & MedTech · Sustainable & Specialized Manufacturing
K-12 District
Pinellas County Schools (K-12)
~95,000 students · 145 schools
Programs of note
- ▪Career & Technical Education (CTE) — STEM, health science, IT, marine technology
- ▪Magnet programs (Pinellas County Center for the Arts, marine science)
- ▪Industry-recognized credential pipeline (CompTIA, OSHA, Adobe Certified)
- ▪Dual-enrollment with SPC and USF
Cluster alignment
Health-Sciences Anchor
USF Health (with regional anchors)
Multi-campus medical / health-sciences enterprise
Programs of note
- ▪USF Health Morsani College of Medicine
- ▪College of Nursing (largest in Florida)
- ▪College of Public Health, Pharmacy, Physical Therapy
- ▪Clinical research partnerships with Tampa General + Johns Hopkins All Children's
Cluster alignment
Binding constraint for
Health Innovation & MedTech
06
The central screen
Where does St. Pete actually concentrate?
An LQ above 1.0 means the cluster is more concentrated in St. Petersburg than the U.S. average. Three of the 2014 clusters cleared 1.0 in 2024; one is approaching; one is fading. LQ trend over time is the structural-shift signal — direction matters as much as level for forward-looking cluster targets.
2024 Location Quotient
1.62
▲ 0.22 vs 2014 (1.40)
Marine & Life Sciences
3,900 → 5,650 jobs
Strong2024 Location Quotient
1.31
▲ 0.13 vs 2014 (1.18)
Creative Arts & Design
4,100 → 5,200 jobs
Strong2024 Location Quotient
1.07
▲ 0.05 vs 2014 (1.02)
Financial Services
9,400 → 11,200 jobs
Concentrated2024 Location Quotient
0.86
▲ 0.15 vs 2014 (0.71)
Data Analytics & Decision Support
2,100 → 3,800 jobs
Approaching2024 Location Quotient
0.71
▼ 0.21 vs 2014 (0.92)
Specialized Manufacturing
5,700 → 4,900 jobs
Underweight07
The future-targets layer
What's coming that doesn't yet show up in the LQ data.
RFP § 4.4.A.3 explicitly asks for emerging sectors and innovation-driven opportunities. Innovation pipelines — research institutes, accelerators, federal-grant-funded R&D, corporate venture flow — predict next-decade clusters that conventional location-quotient screens lag by 5-10 years.
SRI International — St. Petersburg Innovation District
Independent R&D non-profit (founded 1946; Stanford spin-out) anchored on Bayboro waterfront; ocean-tech, biosciences, sensors, autonomous-systems R&D portfolio
Cluster pipeline signal
St. Petersburg Innovation District (SPID)
Anchored at Bayboro by USF St. Petersburg, USF College of Marine Science, USGS, NOAA, Eckerd College Galbraith Lab, FWC Research Institute, SRI International — ~3,000 marine-and-life-sciences workers in a 4-square-mile waterfront district
Cluster pipeline signal
Embarc Collective + Tampa Bay Wave (regional)
Two of Florida's largest tech / venture-stage accelerators within MSA reach; portfolio companies in FinTech, cybersecurity, healthtech, edtech
Cluster pipeline signal
Raymond James Financial (HQ anchor)
Fortune 500 wealth-management and capital-markets HQ with ~8,500+ St. Pete employees; gravitational anchor for FinTech / wealth-tech clusters
Cluster pipeline signal
Johns Hopkins All Children's Hospital
Tier-1 pediatric research hospital with NIH-funded research portfolio; positions St. Pete as a regional medical-research anchor beyond Tampa General
Cluster pipeline signal
USF College of Marine Science (Bayboro)
R1 marine-science research portfolio (oceanography, coastal resilience, marine biology); Tampa Bay's federal-grant-funded marine research engine (~$50M+ annual research spend)
Cluster pipeline signal
Greenhouse + St. Pete Catalyst (entrepreneurship anchors)
Small-business incubator + media platform; documents and accelerates the local entrepreneurship pipeline across creative arts, tech, and small-business sectors
Cluster pipeline signal
08
The bridge from 2014 → 2026
Five clusters scored against a decade of structural change.
RFP § 4.4.A.5 explicitly requires us to assess the relevance and evaluate the performance of the five clusters identified in the 2014 Grow Smarter Initiative. § 4.4.D.1 then requires us to determine which remain viable. Below: each cluster scored on LQ trend + employment growth + anchor stability — the bridge from 2014 plan → 2026 plan.
Marine & Life Sciences
Oceanography, biotech, marine engineering, and applied life-sciences research anchored by Eckerd College, USF St. Petersburg, USGS, and the new SRI Innovation District.
LQ 2014 → 2024
1.40 → 1.62
▲ +0.22
Jobs 2014 → 2024
3.9K → 5.7K
▲ +1,750 (44.9%)
Anchor depth
5 anchors
HSG recommendation
Expand to Marine, Life & Climate Sciences — fold in coastal resilience, climate adaptation, and blue economy.
Creative Arts & Design
Vibrant arts, design, and cultural-tourism economy — Salvador Dalí Museum, mural district, James Museum, and a growing creative-class workforce.
LQ 2014 → 2024
1.18 → 1.31
▲ +0.13
Jobs 2014 → 2024
4.1K → 5.2K
▲ +1,100 (26.8%)
Anchor depth
4 anchors
HSG recommendation
Expand to Creative Arts, Design & Cultural Tourism — pair creative class with the $2.4B regional tourism economy.
Financial Services
St. Petersburg is a national financial-services hub anchored by Raymond James, Franklin Templeton, and Valley Bank's Florida HQ.
LQ 2014 → 2024
1.02 → 1.07
▲ +0.05
Jobs 2014 → 2024
9.4K → 11.2K
▲ +1,800 (19.1%)
Anchor depth
4 anchors
HSG recommendation
Refine to Financial Services & FinTech — build on Raymond James anchor with FinTech accelerators and capital-markets startups.
Data Analytics & Decision Support
Applied analytics, decision sciences, and data-driven services — the smallest but fastest-growing 2014 cluster.
LQ 2014 → 2024
0.71 → 0.86
▲ +0.15
Jobs 2014 → 2024
2.1K → 3.8K
▲ +1,700 (81.0%)
Anchor depth
3 anchors
HSG recommendation
Refine to AI, Data & Decision Sciences — explicit AI/ML positioning and govtech specialization.
Specialized Manufacturing
Precision, marine, and electronic manufacturing — historically strong but losing share to regional peers.
LQ 2014 → 2024
0.92 → 0.71
▼ -0.21
Jobs 2014 → 2024
5.7K → 4.9K
▼ -800 (-14.0%)
Anchor depth
3 anchors
HSG recommendation
Refine to Sustainable & Specialized Manufacturing — emphasize clean-tech, resilient infrastructure, and marine systems.
The story · A decade since Grow Smarter
What ten years of data says about where St. Petersburg actually went.
Stitch every section above into a single arc and a clear story emerges — a city growing into a knowledge economy, with three structural strengths reinforcing, two emerging, and one in need of repivot. Here is what the data tells us about a decade of structural change.
2014
Grow Smarter set five bets.
Marine & Life Sciences. Specialized Manufacturing. Financial Services. Data Analytics & Decision Support. Creative Arts & Design. The plan was structurally sound — every pick was defensible based on what was visible at the time.
2014–2020
The first six years rewarded the knowledge bets and exposed the manufacturing one.
Marine & Life Sciences accelerated as USF Bayboro grew, USGS deepened, and SRI International planted itself on the Innovation District waterfront. Financial Services held — Raymond James kept growing. Creative Arts & Design hit escape velocity as the Dalí, the James Museum, the Pier, and the mural district turned the city into a destination. Specialized Manufacturing started losing share to regional peers and never recovered.
2020–2024
Two structural shifts that the 2014 plan did not anticipate.
Health Care emerged as the single largest cluster in St. Pete — 24,100 jobs, anchored by Bayfront, Johns Hopkins All Children's, and USF Health. The 2014 plan didn't name it. Information & Tech grew at +22.4% over the most recent five years — fastest in the city — driven by AI / Data positioning, the Embarc Collective + Tampa Bay Wave accelerator pipeline, and FinTech overflow from Raymond James. Both clusters now rank among the top growth sectors but are absent from the 2014 framework.
2024–2026
Two new pipeline signals that don't yet show up in LQ data.
Hurricane Helene (Sept 2024) and Hurricane Milton (Oct 2024) accelerated national demand for storm-surge engineering, coastal infrastructure, and resilience services — a Climate Resilience cluster pipeline now flowing through SRI International, the USF College of Marine Science, and the Bayboro waterfront ecosystem. And health innovation continues to compound at Johns Hopkins All Children's + USF Health, with NIH-funded research portfolios that reposition St. Pete as a regional medical-research anchor beyond Tampa.
The cluster picture going into 2026
Three reinforcing. One refining. One repivoting. Two emerging.
Three reinforcing
- Marine, Life & Climate Sciences (LQ ↑ to 1.62)
- Financial Services & FinTech (LQ ↑ to 1.07)
- Creative Arts, Design & Cultural Tourism (LQ ↑ to 1.31)
One refining · one repivoting
- AI / Data / Decision Sciences (LQ approaching 0.86 with structural growth — refine 2014 Data Analytics framing)
- Specialized Manufacturing (LQ ↓ to 0.71 — clean-tech and marine-systems repivot)
Two emerging
- Health Innovation & MedTech (largest job base in city — formalize as target)
- Climate Resilience & Coastal Engineering (post-Helene/Milton national demand pipeline)
That is the cluster picture going into 2026 — six clusters, each with its own evidence trail in the sections above. Our Phase-1 Aspiration Workshop with City leadership will test each one against what the City actually wants the next decade to look like. The Vision page is one possible answer — illustrative, not presumptive.
Source posture · what changes at award
Numbers shown are professionally rounded for portal display, drawn from publicly available U.S. Census ACS 5-year, BLS QCEW, BEA regional data, FL DEO LMS, and HSG's baseline working dataset. Innovation-anchor narratives draw on public information from SRI International, USF St. Petersburg, the City of St. Petersburg, and federal-grant public records. At engagement award, all figures are re-derived from authoritative sources at the most current vintage, with methodology documented in an appendix and the underlying data shared with the City Project Manager.