Tier 2 · Included in base scope
Synthetic Control Method
Construct a 'synthetic St. Petersburg' from peer cities that did not adopt the 2014 plan. The gap between actual and synthetic is the causal effect.
Marine & Life Sciences · indexed employment (2014 = 100)
Effect: +27 pp · p = 0.008
Treatment year: 2014 (Grow Smarter Initiative adoption)
Plan was effective
The 2014 plan added ~27 percentage points beyond the counterfactual.
A synthetic-St. Petersburg constructed from a weighted combination of comparable mid-size coastal cities (Sarasota, Charleston, Savannah, Wilmington) shows what would have happened to Marine Sciences cluster employment had the 2014 Grow Smarter plan never been adopted. Actual St. Pete trajectory significantly outperforms the synthetic counterfactual; the 27 pp gap is the causal effect of the plan.
Conclusion
Strong, robust positive causal effect. The 2014 plan added ~1,200 marine-science jobs above counterfactual (95% CI: 850-1,550, p<0.01). Plan should be renewed and amplified.
Illustrative dummy data
All figures shown are illustrative and chosen to demonstrate three meaningfully different findings. Final analysis at engagement award is derived from authoritative sources (BLS, ACS, Florida DEO, IMPLAN, CoStar) with full methodology documentation.
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