The Playbook · illustrative · methodology-tied · Phase-1 co-created

The kind of recommendations we'd bring — built to plug into what the City already operates.

Below are seven cluster recommendations and five cross-cutting operational moves, each tied to a specific output of our methodology and to a specific lesson from the Grow Smarter implementation track. Every recommendation is designed to refresh the City's existing operational machinery — the Grow Smarter Job Creation grant program, the St. Pete Innovation District, the Grow Smarter Alliance — not to build parallel structures.

Illustrative methodology output · not engagement deliverables

Everything on this page is illustrative— drawn from HSG's pre-engagement analytical work and from the City's revealed implementation preferences observed during Grow Smarter (2014–2026). The actual cluster recommendations, repivot decisions, and traceability-architecture instantiation are produced in Phase 5 (Weeks 9–12), informed by the 110-interview stakeholder program (Phase 3) and co-designed with the Phase-1 Design Coalition (Alliance, EDC, Chamber, Foundation, Innovation District). The framework commitments below — Cluster Repivot Logic, 4-layer Traceability Architecture, Iterative-Plan Principle — are how we structure the work, not pre-built answers.

Cluster recommendations

Cross-cutting moves

100%

Tied to methodology output

All

Designed to plug into Grow Smarter grant program

Grow Smarter implementation review · 2014 → 2026

What the City actually did with the 2014 plan — and what those signals tell us about the next plan.

Before recommending anything, we read the City's revealed preferences from twelve years of Grow Smarter implementation. Three of the five 2014 clusters got real institutional and capital infrastructure built around them. One missed the overlay-refresh window. One declined structurally for five years while remaining on the eligibility list. These signals shape every cluster recommendation below — and they shape the cross-cutting moves that operationalize them.

Strong implementation

Marine & Life Sciences

What the City did

St. Petersburg Innovation District formalized (2016) — direct downstream institutional outcome
SRI International accelerated presence on Bayboro waterfront (2020+)
USF St. Petersburg consolidation under USF system (2020) — strengthened marine-science research portfolio + Tier-1 designation
Sustained anchor co-investment by USGS Coastal & Marine, Eckerd College Galbraith Lab, FWC Research Institute

Operational footprint

Cluster eligibility on the City's Grow Smarter Job Creation grant program · district-level institutional infrastructure · Innovation District governance

Outcome (2014 → 2024)

LQ 1.40 → 1.62 (▲) · jobs 3,900 → 5,650 (+45%) · clearest "plan-to-outcome" trace of the five clusters

Lessons learned

Clusters with named, durable anchor institutions get implementation. This cluster had USF, USGS, Eckerd, and SRI as anchors before the plan was written; the plan organized the implementation rather than created the cluster.
District designation (Innovation District) became a working operational frame — not just a planning artifact. Capital flowed.
Anchor institutions plus geographic concentration (Bayboro waterfront) compound. Recommendation: any new cluster should specify its anchor institutions AND geographic footprint up front.

Moderate implementation

Financial Services

What the City did

Cluster retained as Grow Smarter grant-program eligibility category
Raymond James continued growth (~8,500+ employees in St. Pete)
Franklin Templeton anchor stable; Valley Bank Florida HQ landed
FinTech overlay NOT formalized at the City level — innovation accelerator activity (Embarc Collective, Tampa Bay Wave) operates at MSA scale, not city scale

Operational footprint

Cluster eligibility on the City's Grow Smarter Job Creation grant program; corporate-anchor stability

Outcome (2014 → 2024)

LQ 1.02 → 1.07 (▲ modest) · jobs 9,400 → 11,200 (+19%) · cluster held its position but did not evolve into the FinTech overlay other markets achieved

Lessons learned

Cluster retention without overlay refresh = stagnation. The City held the financial-services anchor but missed the FinTech window.
Corporate-anchor stability is necessary but not sufficient. Raymond James kept growing on its own; the strategic plan didn't add much marginal value to that anchor.
Recommendation refresh: Financial Services + FinTech overlay (capital markets, wealth tech, embedded finance) — explicit FinTech accelerator alignment with MSA infrastructure (Embarc, Tampa Bay Wave) at city scale.

Strong implementation

Creative Arts & Design

What the City did

$93M St. Pete Pier completion (2020) — major capital investment framed as Grow Smarter outcome
Mural district maturation — became a national destination
Salvador Dalí Museum, James Museum, Morean Arts Center, Warehouse Arts District, Deuces Live Corridor all stable / growing
Cultural-tourism economy compounded over the decade; Foundation for a Healthy St. Pete-funded resilience hub at Warehouse Arts District (2020 COVID response)

Operational footprint

Cluster eligibility on the City's Grow Smarter Job Creation grant program · capital projects ($93M Pier) · arts district infrastructure

Outcome (2014 → 2024)

LQ 1.18 → 1.31 (▲) · jobs 4,100 → 5,200 (+27%) · cluster transformed into a national tourism magnet · second-strongest implementation track

Lessons learned

Capital investment operationalizes a creative cluster. The Pier wasn't a marginal item — it was structural.
Cultural-tourism clusters work when paired with district-level identity (mural district, Warehouse Arts District, Deuces Live).
Recommendation: Creative Arts & Design + Cultural Tourism — pair the creative class with the $2.4B regional tourism economy explicitly in the next plan.

Limited implementation

Data Analytics & Decision Support

What the City did

Cluster retained on Grow Smarter grant-program eligibility list
Catalyst Innovation Hub launched (2018) — became a coworking + media platform, not a pure data-analytics anchor
Major MSA-level accelerator activity (Embarc Collective, Tampa Bay Wave) operated at MSA scale — most data-analytics startup activity flowed through Tampa, not St. Pete city limits
USF Muma College of Business decision-sciences programs grew but did not produce a city-anchored data cluster

Operational footprint

Cluster eligibility on the City's Grow Smarter Job Creation grant program; partial overlap with MSA-level startup ecosystem

Outcome (2014 → 2024)

LQ 0.71 → 0.86 (▲ but still below 1.0) · jobs 2,100 → 3,800 (+81% growth rate, fastest of the 5) · mixed result — strong growth, but not enough to clear the LQ-1.0 threshold

Lessons learned

Clusters without named city-scale anchor institutions struggle to scale on strategic-plan momentum alone. Catalyst tried, but didn't anchor.
Action at MSA scale doesn't substitute for city-scale anchor investment. A target cluster needs city-resident anchor employers or institutions, not MSA-borrowed credibility.
Recommendation refresh: AI / Data / Decision Sciences with explicit AI/ML positioning + city-scale anchor (USF Muma, Raymond James data sciences, Catalyst Hub) framed as the named ecosystem.

Weak implementation

Specialized Manufacturing

What the City did

Cluster retained on Grow Smarter grant-program eligibility list (still active 12 years later)
Jabil $67M HQ campus expansion (four-phase, beginning 2019) — but Jabil's strategic identity is tech / electronics manufacturing, not the broader "specialized manufacturing" the 2014 plan envisioned
No clean-tech, marine-systems, or sustainable-manufacturing repivot at the City level
No structural investment in retraining the manufacturing labor base toward a refresh focus

Operational footprint

Cluster eligibility list (unchanged) · Jabil corporate anchor (organic) · no targeted refresh

Outcome (2014 → 2024)

LQ 0.92 → 0.71 (▼ structurally) · jobs 5,700 → 4,900 (−14%) · the cluster declined materially while remaining in the strategic plan and grant-program eligibility list

Lessons learned

The cautionary tale of the five. The City was reluctant to retire or repivot a commitment even as the structural data turned negative for 5+ years.
Strategic plans need explicit repivot triggers. Without them, declining clusters absorb continued grant-eligibility attention while their LQ falls.
Manufacturing is geography-specific. The 2014 plan didn't define which kind of manufacturing to target. Generic "specialized manufacturing" is too vague to operationalize.
Recommendation refresh: Sustainable & Specialized Manufacturing (clean-tech + marine-systems + resilient-infrastructure manufacturing) — preserves the political coalition and the eligibility line while updating the strategic substance.

Points of strength

✓Cluster list became literal eligibility for the Grow Smarter Job Creation grant program (still operating 12 years later)
✓Created enduring institutional infrastructure: St. Petersburg EDC, St. Petersburg Innovation District (2016)
✓Sustained governance: Grow Smarter Alliance (27+ orgs), Grow Smarter 2.0 equity refresh (2018+), Foundation for a Healthy St. Pete $1.2M grant
✓Major capital projects framed as Grow Smarter outcomes ($93M St. Pete Pier, Tropicana redevelopment planning, Jabil $67M HQ expansion, US Ignite "Smart Gigabit City" designation)
✓Quantified outcomes: median household income +25%, poverty rate −14% since 2014

Points of weakness

⚠No publicly available implementation tracker or annual scorecard with recommendation-by-recommendation status
⚠Specialized Manufacturing remained on the eligibility list while the LQ structurally declined for 5+ years — explicit repivot was avoided
⚠Some focus areas (Awareness Building, Culture & Community) produced organizational outputs but harder-to-measure programmatic outcomes
⚠Cluster retention without overlay refresh = stagnation (Financial Services missed the FinTech window; Data Analytics never cleared LQ 1.0)

How these signals shape the next plan

01The City uses strategic plans operationally — recommendations should be designed to plug into existing operational machinery (the grant program eligibility list is the FIRST destination, not a new program).
02Build the traceability that Grow Smarter 1.0 lacked — numbered recommendations with named owners, time-bound milestones, and a public dashboard architecture.
03Expect plan amendment, not replacement — design recommendations to be framework-resilient so a future Grow Smarter 3.0 can extend, not contradict, what we deliver.
04Specialized Manufacturing is the cautionary tale — provide explicit repivot triggers and decision logic with our recommendations, not just cluster names.
05Treat the Alliance, EDC, Chamber, Foundation, and Innovation District as operational partners and Phase-1 design partners, not Phase-3 stakeholder-engagement targets.

Seven cluster recommendations · methodology-tied

Three retain. Two refine. One repivot. Two new.

Each card below names the methodology output that produced the recommendation, the specific operational moves (NAICS-code translation, wage threshold, anchor coalition), and the traceability anchor (Recommendation ID, named owner, 12 / 24 / 60-month milestones).

RetainREC-CL-01

Marine, Life & Climate Sciences

Strongest implementation track of the original five — retain, expand the cluster identity to include Climate Sciences, and align with the post-Helene/Milton federal-grant pipeline.

Methodology output that drives this recommendation

Tier 1 LQ analysis→ LQ trended UP from 1.40 → 1.62 over the decade — strongest structural signal of the five
Innovation pipeline scan (RFP § 4.4.A.3)→ SRI International + St. Pete Innovation District + USF College of Marine Science = federal-grant-funded research engine ($50M+ annual)
Cluster repivot logic→ Meets all RETAIN triggers: LQ ≥ 1.0 + trending up, named anchor institutions at scale, geographic concentration (Bayboro)
Stakeholder synthesis (NLP topic modeling, Tier 2)→ Post-Helene/Milton (2024) stakeholder consensus on coastal-resilience federal-grant pipeline opportunity

Specific operational recommendations

Update Grow Smarter Job Creation grant program eligibility: add Climate Resilience NAICS codes alongside existing Marine/Life Sciences NAICS — drop-in to existing program, not a new program
Establish formal "Climate Resilience" sub-designation within the cluster — eligibility for federal coastal-resilience grants (NOAA, FEMA BRIC, NSF Coastal Resilience, DoD Coastal Defense)
Innovation District + USF College of Marine Science 5-year capital plan: $X million target through 2031 with named anchor partners and federal-grant-capture targets
Wage threshold step-up: 125% of Pinellas County average wage (from current 115%) — push toward higher-skill jobs aligned with R1 research output
Local-hire bonus structure preserved: $3,000 bonus per St. Pete resident hired (currently $2,000); $4,000 South St. Pete CRA bonus (currently $3,000)

NAICS code translation

▪ 5417 (R&D in physical, engineering, life sciences)
▪ 6213 (offices of other health practitioners)
▪ 5413 (architectural, engineering, related services)
▪ 3345 (navigational, measuring, electromedical instruments)
▪ 2371 (utility-system construction · resilience overlay)
▪ 9999 (federal NOAA / FEMA / NSF grant pass-through entities)

Wage threshold

125% of Pinellas County average wage

Anchor coalition

▪ USF College of Marine Science
▪ SRI International (St. Pete)
▪ USGS Coastal & Marine
▪ Eckerd College Galbraith Lab
▪ FWC Research Institute
▪ St. Pete Innovation District (governance)

Traceability anchor

Owner

City Department of Economic & Workforce Development · co-administered with St. Pete Innovation District + EDC

12-month milestone

Grant-program eligibility refresh approved by City Council; 2 federal-grant applications submitted under new Climate Resilience designation

24-month milestone

$X million in federal grant capture for St. Pete-anchored research; 2 anchor-institution capital commitments

60-month milestone

LQ ≥ 1.75 (currently 1.62); 7,500+ cluster jobs (from 5,650); national "Coastal Resilience Hub" designation

RefineREC-CL-02

Financial Services & FinTech

Cluster held in 2014–2024 but missed the FinTech window — refresh the cluster identity to include FinTech overlay and align with MSA-level accelerator infrastructure (Embarc Collective, Tampa Bay Wave) at city scale.

Methodology output that drives this recommendation

Tier 1 LQ analysis→ LQ ▲ to 1.07 (modest movement) — cluster held but didn't accelerate
Grow Smarter implementation review→ Cluster retention without overlay refresh = stagnation. Raymond James grew on its own; the strategic plan added little marginal value.
Brad Dillman federal-finance experience→ DebtX $17B HUD/FHA NPL pricing role + Cortland $1.25B PURE acquisition = federal-finance and capital-markets methodology embedded in our team
Innovation pipeline scan→ Embarc Collective + Tampa Bay Wave operate at MSA scale — cluster needs city-scale anchor for FinTech that stays inside St. Pete city limits

Specific operational recommendations

Refresh cluster definition: Financial Services & FinTech (capital markets, wealth tech, embedded finance, regtech)
Update Grow Smarter Job Creation grant program eligibility to include FinTech-specific NAICS codes
Establish a FinTech Accelerator Partnership: Raymond James + Embarc Collective + Tampa Bay Wave anchored in St. Pete (vs. current Tampa-anchored)
Wage threshold step-up: 125% of Pinellas County average wage (FinTech is high-wage knowledge work)
Co-create explicit "Wealth Tech Hub" sub-designation — Raymond James anchor extension into capital-markets-tech startups
City Council resolution: cluster eligibility expansion + accelerator partnership authorization

NAICS code translation

▪ 522110 (commercial banking)
▪ 522291 (consumer lending)
▪ 523120 (securities brokerage)
▪ 523930 (investment advice)
▪ 5239 (other investment activities — capital markets fintech)
▪ 5415 (computer systems design — fintech engineering)
▪ 6113 (colleges/universities — fintech education)

Wage threshold

125% of Pinellas County average wage

Anchor coalition

▪ Raymond James Financial (HQ anchor)
▪ Franklin Templeton
▪ Valley Bank Florida HQ
▪ Embarc Collective (MSA accelerator partner)
▪ Tampa Bay Wave (MSA accelerator partner)
▪ USF Muma College of Business — Kate Tiedemann School

Traceability anchor

Owner

City Department of Economic & Workforce Development · co-administered with St. Pete Chamber + EDC

12-month milestone

Cluster definition + grant-program eligibility refresh approved by City Council; FinTech Accelerator Partnership MOU signed

24-month milestone

5 FinTech startups domiciled in St. Pete city limits via accelerator partnership; LQ → 1.10

60-month milestone

LQ ≥ 1.20; 13,500+ cluster jobs; national "Wealth Tech Hub" recognition

RetainREC-CL-03

Creative Arts, Design & Cultural Tourism

Second-strongest implementation track — retain, expand to formal Cultural Tourism overlay, and pair with the next capital-project anchor (Tropicana redevelopment).

Methodology output that drives this recommendation

Tier 1 LQ analysis→ LQ ▲ to 1.31 — cluster transformed into a national tourism magnet over the decade
Grow Smarter implementation review→ $93M St. Pete Pier (2020) directly framed as Grow Smarter outcome — capital investment operationalized this cluster
Stakeholder synthesis (Tier 2 NLP)→ Cultural-tourism economy compounded over the decade; mural district + Pier + Dalí + James Museum + Warehouse Arts District + Deuces Live = district-level identity ecosystem
Peer-city benchmark (Chattanooga)→ Walnut Street Bridge + Tennessee Aquarium = the closest peer analog for capital-investment-driven cultural cluster development

Specific operational recommendations

Expand cluster definition: Creative Arts, Design & Cultural Tourism (formal Cultural Tourism overlay)
Update grant program: include hospitality/tourism NAICS codes at lower wage thresholds (90% Pinellas avg) for gateway-to-cluster access — preserves equity priority
Pair with next capital anchor: Tropicana Field 86-acre redevelopment as a Grow Smarter cluster outcome with explicit cultural-tourism programming
Coordinate with Foundation for a Healthy St. Pete on equity overlay — cultural-tourism jobs are entry points to economic mobility for the South St. Pete CRA workforce
Add equity gateway tier: 90% Pinellas avg wage threshold for entry-level positions with documented career-advancement pathway to 115%+

NAICS code translation

▪ 7111 (performing arts companies)
▪ 7112 (spectator sports)
▪ 7115 (independent artists, writers, performers)
▪ 7211 (traveler accommodation — district-anchored)
▪ 7224 (drinking places — cultural districts)
▪ 5414 (specialized design services)
▪ 5111 (newspaper, periodical, book publishers — creative)

Wage threshold

115% Pinellas avg (cluster default) · 90% Pinellas avg (equity-gateway tier)

Anchor coalition

▪ Salvador Dalí Museum
▪ James Museum
▪ Morean Arts Center
▪ Warehouse Arts District
▪ Deuces Live Corridor
▪ St. Pete Pier (City)
▪ Foundation for a Healthy St. Pete

Traceability anchor

Owner

City Department of Economic & Workforce Development · co-administered with St. Pete Arts Alliance + Foundation for a Healthy St. Pete

12-month milestone

Cluster definition + equity-gateway tier approved by City Council; Tropicana redevelopment cultural-programming coordination MOU signed

24-month milestone

Equity-gateway tier disburses $X grants to South St. Pete CRA-resident hires; new district anchor identified

60-month milestone

LQ ≥ 1.45; 12,000+ cluster jobs; Tropicana redevelopment with named cultural anchor

RefineREC-CL-04

AI, Data & Decision Sciences

Fastest-growth cluster (+81% jobs) but never cleared LQ 1.0 — refresh the cluster identity, designate the named city-scale anchor coalition, and target LQ 1.10 in five years.

Methodology output that drives this recommendation

Tier 1 LQ analysis→ LQ ▲ from 0.71 → 0.86 — strong upward trend but still below the 1.0 export-cluster threshold
Grow Smarter implementation review→ Catalyst Innovation Hub launched (2018) but became a coworking + media platform, not a city-scale data anchor — the cluster lacked named anchor institutions inside city limits
Brad Dillman AI / ML methodology→ Florey Street Advisors AI-native practice + Cortland ML pipeline (boosting + neural networks) + RPM Living 48,000-asset ML pipeline = embedded AI/ML methodology in HSG team
Cluster repivot logic→ Meets all REFINE triggers: LQ < 1.0 but trending up + emerging-sector overlay opportunity (AI/ML) + sub-scale anchor institutions can scale

Specific operational recommendations

Update cluster definition: AI / Data / Decision Sciences (explicit AI/ML positioning)
Designate city-scale anchor coalition: Catalyst Innovation Hub + USF Muma College of Business + Raymond James data sciences + Greenhouse
Update grant program eligibility: add AI/ML-specific NAICS codes alongside the existing Data Analytics designation
Wage threshold: 130% Pinellas County average wage (highest of any cluster — these are knowledge-economy jobs)
5-year LQ goal: 1.10 (from 0.86) — explicit numerical commitment in the strategic plan
Pair with cluster-cross overlay: AI methodology is enabling infrastructure for FinTech, Health Innovation, and Climate Resilience clusters

NAICS code translation

▪ 5415 (computer systems design and related services)
▪ 5417 (R&D — applied AI/ML research)
▪ 5112 (software publishers)
▪ 5182 (data processing, hosting, cloud)
▪ 5191 (other information services — data wrangling)
▪ 541512 (computer systems design — AI specialization)

Wage threshold

130% of Pinellas County average wage

Anchor coalition

▪ Catalyst Innovation Hub (designate as city-scale data anchor)
▪ USF Muma College of Business — Decision Sciences
▪ Raymond James Financial (data sciences group)
▪ Greenhouse (entrepreneurship anchor)
▪ Embarc Collective (MSA partner)
▪ Florey Street Advisors (AI advisory partner)

Traceability anchor

Owner

City Department of Economic & Workforce Development · co-administered with Catalyst Innovation Hub + EDC

12-month milestone

Cluster definition + AI/ML overlay approved by City Council; named anchor coalition MOU signed

24-month milestone

Catalyst → city-scale data anchor formal designation; 8+ AI/ML startups domiciled in St. Pete

60-month milestone

LQ ≥ 1.10; 6,500+ cluster jobs; national AI/Data hub recognition

RepivotREC-CL-05

Sustainable & Specialized Manufacturing

The cautionary tale of the five — LQ 0.92 → 0.71 structural decline. REPIVOT to clean-tech, marine-systems, and resilient-infrastructure manufacturing with explicit 24-month transition window.

Methodology output that drives this recommendation

Tier 1 LQ analysis→ LQ ▼ from 0.92 → 0.71 — STRUCTURAL DECLINE for 5+ years; jobs −14%
Grow Smarter implementation review→ City retained the cluster on the eligibility list while the LQ structurally declined — cautionary tale of strategic-plan inertia. Repivot was avoided despite clear data.
Cluster repivot logic→ Meets all REPIVOT triggers: LQ trending DOWN structurally + underlying assets (workforce, supply chain, geography) still exist + adjacent emerging cluster (clean-tech) could absorb workforce + political/operational sunk cost makes outright retirement difficult
Peer-city benchmark (Greenville, SC)→ Greenville's BMW + automotive cluster is the closest peer analog for manufacturing-cluster repivot via foreign direct investment + workforce-development anchor (clean-tech, EV, advanced materials)
Tier 2 difference-in-differences (synthetic-control causal inference)→ DID counterfactual: "What would Specialized Manufacturing have looked like if 2014 Grow Smarter had repivoted to clean-tech in 2018?" — quantifies opportunity cost of inaction

Specific operational recommendations

REPIVOT the cluster: Sustainable & Specialized Manufacturing (clean-tech, marine systems, resilient-infrastructure manufacturing)
24-month transition window: existing eligibility cohort retains grant access; new entrants subject to refreshed cluster definition
Update grant program eligibility: NAICS codes shifted from generic manufacturing to clean-tech / EV / aerospace (marine) / engines for resilience
Workforce-development pathway: SPC clean-tech CTE + USF College of Marine Science partnership (manufacturing labor base retraining)
Cross-cluster integration: Sustainable Manufacturing produces resilience products → Climate Resilience cluster (REC-CL-07)
Explicit "why repivot" public rationale published — preserves plan credibility (Grow Smarter 1.0 didn't do this for any underperformer)
Wage threshold maintained at 115% Pinellas avg (manufacturing workforce protections)

NAICS code translation

▪ 3334 (semiconductor and other electronic component manufacturing)
▪ 3361 (motor vehicle manufacturing — EV / clean-tech)
▪ 3364 (aerospace product manufacturing — marine adaptations)
▪ 333610 (engine, turbine, power transmission — resilience)
▪ 3399 (other miscellaneous manufacturing — sustainable products)
▪ 3346 (manufacturing and reproducing magnetic and optical media)

Wage threshold

115% of Pinellas County average wage (preserve manufacturing-workforce floor)

Anchor coalition

▪ Jabil (anchor — repositioned around tech / electronics manufacturing)
▪ Honeywell Aerospace (regional)
▪ St. Petersburg College — clean-tech CTE program
▪ USF College of Marine Science (marine-systems engineering)
▪ Florida DEO Workforce Florida (retraining funding pathway)

Traceability anchor

Owner

City Department of Economic & Workforce Development · co-administered with SPC + Florida DEO + Workforce Florida

12-month milestone

Cluster repivot + 24-month transition window approved by City Council; SPC clean-tech CTE program articulation MOU; "why repivot" public rationale published

24-month milestone

Existing eligibility cohort transition complete; first clean-tech/marine-systems anchor employer relocated or expanded in St. Pete

60-month milestone

LQ ≥ 0.95; jobs base recovered to 2014 level (5,700+); 2 new clean-tech anchor employers in St. Pete

NewREC-CL-06

Health Innovation & MedTech

Largest job base in St. Pete (24,100 jobs) but missing from the 2014 plan — formalize as a target cluster with explicit federal-research-grant pipeline.

Methodology output that drives this recommendation

Tier 1 employment composition (RFP § 4.4.A.1)→ Health Care & Social Assistance is the LARGEST job count in St. Pete at 24,100 jobs (+14.2% 5-yr) — the single biggest cluster, missing from the 2014 plan
Innovation pipeline scan (RFP § 4.4.A.3)→ Johns Hopkins All Children's Hospital (NIH-funded research portfolio, full integration 2020+) + USF Health + Bayfront + St. Anthony's = federal-research-grant pipeline
Brad Dillman RPM Living health-economy work→ Forecasting and ML pipeline experience for 48,000+ multifamily assets included healthcare-sector adjacency analysis — informs MedTech cluster modeling
Educational-asset analysis (RFP § 4.4.A.2)→ USF Health + SPC nursing + allied health programs = largest healthcare-talent-pipeline in Pinellas County
Cluster repivot logic→ Meets NEW cluster criteria: structural strength visible in LQ + employment data + named anchor institutions + emerging sub-sectors (medical devices, health AI, clinical-research services)

Specific operational recommendations

NEW cluster designation in Grow Smarter Job Creation grant program
Anchor coalition: USF Health + Bayfront Health + Johns Hopkins All Children's + St. Anthony's Hospital + SPC Nursing & Allied Health
Update grant program eligibility: add medical-research and MedTech-specific NAICS codes
Wage threshold: 120% Pinellas County average wage
Equity overlay: South St. Pete CRA priority via JHACH community programs (preserve 2018+ Grow Smarter 2.0 equity orientation)
Federal-grant pathway: NIH research, FDA regulatory, CMS innovation, HRSA training programs — capture targets in the recommendation
Pair with Health Innovation Sub-District designation in the existing St. Pete Innovation District frame (extend Bayboro to include health corridor)

NAICS code translation

▪ 6213 (offices of other health practitioners)
▪ 6221 (general medical and surgical hospitals)
▪ 6222 (psychiatric and substance abuse hospitals)
▪ 5417 (R&D — medical research)
▪ 3391 (medical equipment and supplies manufacturing)
▪ 5413 (architectural / engineering — health-facility design)

Wage threshold

120% of Pinellas County average wage

Anchor coalition

▪ USF Health Morsani College of Medicine
▪ Bayfront Health (St. Pete)
▪ Johns Hopkins All Children's Hospital
▪ St. Anthony's Hospital
▪ St. Petersburg College — Nursing & Allied Health
▪ Foundation for a Healthy St. Pete (mission alignment)

Traceability anchor

Owner

City Department of Economic & Workforce Development · co-administered with USF Health + Foundation for a Healthy St. Pete

12-month milestone

NEW cluster designation approved by City Council; anchor-coalition MOU signed; federal-grant-capture target set

24-month milestone

Health Innovation Sub-District designation (extension of St. Pete Innovation District); 2 new MedTech employer-anchor relocations or expansions

60-month milestone

LQ ≥ 1.20; 30,000+ cluster jobs (from 24,100); $X million federal research grants captured for St. Pete-anchored institutions

NewREC-CL-07

Climate Resilience & Coastal Engineering

Post-Helene/Milton (2024) national demand pipeline for storm-surge engineering, coastal infrastructure, and resilience services — designate as a NEW cluster with explicit federal-grant capture target.

Methodology output that drives this recommendation

Innovation pipeline scan (RFP § 4.4.A.3)→ SRI International + USF College of Marine Science + USGS Coastal & Marine + FWC Research Institute = federal-grant-funded coastal-resilience research engine
Stakeholder synthesis post-Helene/Milton→ September 2024 Hurricane Helene + October 2024 Hurricane Milton accelerated national demand for coastal-resilience expertise — pipeline visible in NOAA, FEMA BRIC, NSF, DoD grant flows
Brad Dillman federal real-estate-finance methodology→ $17B HUD/FHA NPL pricing role + federal-portfolio valuation methodology = transferable to coastal-resilience asset-pricing and risk modeling
Maurice House Ho Chi Minh City Office Justification (work sample)→ City-level economic justification for federal placement — direct shape-analog to St. Pete Climate Resilience federal anchor justification
Cluster repivot logic→ Meets NEW cluster criteria: federal-grant pipeline + named anchor institutions + emerging structural opportunity that doesn't yet show in conventional LQ data

Specific operational recommendations

NEW cluster designation in Grow Smarter Job Creation grant program
Anchor coalition: SRI International + USF College of Marine Science + USGS Coastal & Marine + FWC Research Institute + Florida-state and federal partners
Federal-grant capture target: NOAA Office for Coastal Management + FEMA Building Resilient Infrastructure & Communities (BRIC) + NSF Coastal Resilience + DoD Coastal Defense + USACE Coastal Resilience Program
Wage threshold: 130% Pinellas County average wage (research and engineering positions)
5-year goal: $X million in federal grants captured for St. Pete-anchored research and infrastructure
Cross-cluster integration: Climate Resilience cluster ABSORBS workforce from REC-CL-05 (Sustainable Manufacturing repivot) — sustainable manufacturing produces resilience products
Pair with St. Petersburg as designated "Coastal Resilience Hub" — national positioning via federal-grant pipeline

NAICS code translation

▪ 2371 (utility-system construction)
▪ 2389 (other specialty trade contractors — resilience)
▪ 5413 (architectural, engineering, related services)
▪ 5417 (R&D — coastal-resilience research)
▪ 5416 (management, scientific, technical consulting)
▪ 5612 (facilities support services — emergency response)

Wage threshold

130% of Pinellas County average wage

Anchor coalition

▪ SRI International (St. Pete)
▪ USF College of Marine Science
▪ USGS Coastal & Marine
▪ FWC Research Institute
▪ U.S. Army Corps of Engineers — Jacksonville District (federal partner)
▪ NOAA Office for Coastal Management (federal partner)
▪ Florida Department of Environmental Protection

Traceability anchor

Owner

City Department of Economic & Workforce Development · co-administered with St. Pete Innovation District + USF Marine Science + SRI International

12-month milestone

NEW cluster designation approved by City Council; federal-grant capture target set; 3 anchor-coalition federal-grant applications submitted

24-month milestone

$X million in federal grants captured for St. Pete-anchored institutions; "Coastal Resilience Hub" national designation pursued

60-month milestone

LQ ≥ 1.00 (from baseline ~0.4); 5,000+ cluster jobs; "Coastal Resilience Hub" national recognition

Cluster repivot logic · standing decision rule

Explicit rules to retain, refine, repivot, or retire — so the next strategic plan can apply them without re-engaging a consultant.

The Specialized Manufacturing cautionary tale shows what happens without explicit decision logic. Below: the four-decision framework we publish as a standing rule, applied annually in the recommendation-traceability scorecard (see below).

RETAIN

Retain as-is

Triggers

▪LQ ≥ 1.0 AND trending up (Δ ≥ +0.05 over 5–10 years)
▪Named anchor institution(s) committed at scale
▪Talent pipeline aligned and not at capacity ceiling
▪Operational machinery (grant program, district designation) functioning

Example

Marine & Life Sciences — LQ 1.40 → 1.62, anchored, operating district

Recommendation

Continue grant-program eligibility unchanged · refresh the cluster identity periodically with overlay refinement (Marine + Life + Climate Sciences) · monitor anchor capacity

REFINE

Refine the framing

Triggers

▪LQ < 1.0 but trending up (positive structural shift)
▪Emerging-sector overlay opportunity exists (e.g., AI overlay on data analytics)
▪Anchor institutions exist but at sub-scale; potential to scale
▪Cluster identity is too generic for operational programs

Example

Data Analytics & Decision Support → AI / Data / Decision Sciences (LQ 0.71 → 0.86, overlay opportunity)

Recommendation

Retain the eligibility line but update the cluster definition · pair with named anchor (USF Muma, Catalyst Hub) · add explicit AI/ML overlay · sharpen the wage-threshold and NAICS specification in the grant program

REPIVOT

Repivot — preserve the coalition, update the substance

Triggers

▪LQ trending DOWN structurally (5+ years of decline)
▪Underlying assets (workforce, supply chain, geography) still exist but are mis-targeted
▪Adjacent emerging cluster (clean-tech, climate, AI overlay) could absorb the workforce and supply chain
▪Political and operational sunk cost in the eligibility list makes outright retirement difficult

Example

Specialized Manufacturing → Sustainable & Specialized Manufacturing (clean-tech, marine-systems, resilient-infrastructure manufacturing)

Recommendation

Update cluster identity in the strategic plan AND the Grow Smarter grant-program eligibility list · provide a 24-month transition window for the existing eligibility cohort · pair the repivot with concrete workforce-development pathway (SPC clean-tech CTE, USF College of Marine Science) · do NOT outright retire the cluster

RETIRE

Retire — explicit sunset

Triggers

▪LQ < 0.75 AND trending down for 5+ years
▪No anchor institution committed
▪No emerging-sector overlay opportunity
▪Talent pipeline misaligned and underutilized
▪Continued eligibility attention is producing zero measurable outcome

Example

(none of the 2014 clusters meet the retire threshold; included for completeness of decision logic)

Recommendation

Sunset eligibility on the Grow Smarter grant program with a 12-month transition window · redirect freed grant capacity to the new cluster definitions · publish an explicit "why retired" rationale to maintain plan credibility

Recommendation Traceability Architecture · what Grow Smarter 1.0 lacked

Numbered recommendations. Named owners. Public dashboard. Refresh triggers.

Grow Smarter 1.0 has no published recommendation tracker. The City couldn't tell that Specialized Manufacturing was structurally declining until the LQ visibly cratered. We ship the traceability architecture below at engagement close — so the next refresh cycle (Grow Smarter 3.0) can apply the framework without commissioning another consultant.

Layer 1 — Numbered Recommendation Register

Every recommendation in the final report carries an ID, a named owner, quantified milestones at 12 / 24 / 60 months, and a sunset-or-refresh trigger. Eliminates the "vibes-based" implementation tracking weakness of Grow Smarter 1.0.

Deliverables

Recommendation ID (e.g., REC-CL-01 = first cluster recommendation)
Named owner (City Department / EDC / Chamber / Foundation / Alliance / Innovation District)
12-month operational milestone (action-level)
24-month outcome milestone (output-level)
60-month impact milestone (outcome-level)
Sunset / refresh trigger logic

Owned by

City Project Manager · administered by EDC

Cadence

Set at engagement close · referenced quarterly

Layer 2 — Public Implementation Dashboard

A public-facing dashboard tracking each recommendation's status, owner, and latest milestone. The City has shown it values transparency and equity; the dashboard makes the strategy visible and accountable to residents.

Deliverables

Recommendation-level status (On Track / At Risk / Behind / Complete / Sunset)
Cluster-level KPIs (employment, LQ, anchor employer investment, grant disbursements)
Owner-level accountability view (City / EDC / Chamber / Foundation / Alliance / Innovation District)
Quarterly update cadence with named contributors
Public-input portal continuity (carried forward from the engagement)

Owned by

EDC + City Communications · co-administered with Grow Smarter Alliance

Cadence

Quarterly public updates · annual scorecard release

Layer 3 — Annual Scorecard & Refresh Trigger

Annual narrative report scoring each recommendation against the milestones set at engagement close, plus an automatic 24-month refresh-trigger review for any recommendation flagged "At Risk" or "Behind." This is the mechanism Grow Smarter 1.0 lacked — the City couldn't tell a cluster was structurally declining until the LQ visibly cratered.

Deliverables

Annual narrative scorecard (City Council briefing format)
Automatic refresh-trigger review for recommendations flagged At Risk or Behind for 24 consecutive months
Cluster repivot logic application (using the explicit RETAIN / REFINE / REPIVOT / RETIRE rules)
Public-record entry into the City's Comprehensive Plan / EDC strategic frame

Owned by

City Project Manager · annual presentation by HSG (post-engagement, Year 1 only — then by EDC + Alliance)

Cadence

Annual · with automatic 24-month refresh-trigger review

Layer 4 — Operational-Machinery Integration

Every cluster recommendation ships pre-translated into operational-program eligibility — NAICS codes, wage thresholds, hiring-bonus structure — so the existing Grow Smarter Job Creation grant program can absorb the recommendations without a 12-month policy rewrite.

Deliverables

NAICS-code translation per recommended cluster
Wage-threshold definition aligned to current Pinellas County average wage formula
Local-hire bonus structure (preserves South St. Pete CRA priority)
Recommended grant-program rule changes (one-page City Council resolution draft)
Operational-eligibility matrix for the EDC's business-development pipeline

Owned by

City Department of Economic & Workforce Development · drafted by HSG

Cadence

Single delivery at engagement close · refreshed at each Annual Scorecard if eligibility list changes

Iterative-plan principle + Phase-1 design coalition

Refresh existing operational machinery. Treat the federation as Phase-1 design partners.

Iterative-plan principle

Our recommendations plug into the City's existing operational machinery — they do not require new infrastructure to execute.

The Grow Smarter Job Creation and Talent Attraction Program already exists. The Grow Smarter Alliance already exists. The St. Petersburg Innovation District already exists. The Foundation for a Healthy St. Pete already funds the strategy. Our recommendations are designed as the next iteration of that operational stack — refreshing eligibility lists, refining cluster definitions, and adding the recommendation-traceability architecture that Grow Smarter 1.0 lacked.

Examples

Each cluster recommendation ships with NAICS-code translation + wage-threshold spec + grant-program eligibility language — drop-in for the City's existing Grow Smarter Job Creation grant program.
Each recommendation carries an explicit RETAIN / REFINE / REPIVOT / RETIRE designation against the 2014 cluster baseline.
The recommendation-traceability architecture is co-administered with the existing Grow Smarter Alliance — not a parallel structure.
The cluster repivot logic is published as a standing decision rule, not a one-time exercise — so future Grow Smarter 3.0 can apply it without re-engaging a consultant.

Phase-1 design coalition

Five operational partners — design partners, not stakeholder-engagement targets.

The Grow Smarter Alliance, St. Pete EDC, St. Pete Chamber, Foundation for a Healthy St. Pete, and St. Petersburg Innovation District together operate the execution machinery. Recommendations that don't have buy-in from this federation will not get executed regardless of how good the analysis is. Phase 1 includes a working session with each.

Grow Smarter Alliance
27+ org governance · cross-sector coordination · plan-amendment authority
St. Petersburg EDC
Business-development pipeline · employer-anchor coordination · grant-program operations support
St. Petersburg Chamber
Membership engagement · small-business outreach · workforce-pipeline coordination
Foundation for a Healthy St. Pete
Equity overlay · funding capacity · Grow Smarter 2.0 governance
St. Petersburg Innovation District
District-level governance · anchor-institution coordination · capital-investment partnership

These are illustrative — the actual recommendations are co-created in Phase 1

Want to see the data trail behind each recommendation?

Every recommendation above traces back to a specific output in our Economic Snapshot, Industry Cluster Audit, Past Performance, or Innovation Pipeline analysis. The links below walk through the underlying evidence.

Economic Snapshot Industry Clusters Methodology The Vision